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It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or a cause for Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard query to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
• The winger might become the performer he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.