Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
